Weekly Major Trade September 4,2012

September 4 2012.
Market Starting to turn.
Rating slumped to  20.83% as of today.
Currently looking for possibility to lessen my exposure to this pair and increase my stop loss for this pair for the remaining positions.


Currently, I'm building my position for this week slowly.

Im currently exposed with EUR/USD Pair in Long position due to Technical rating.
Fundamentally I am short for EUR.
To hedge my risk. I decided to open second postion with EUR/AUS @ 50% Fibbonacci Retracement.
I decided to open small positions to test the market. We are currently looking for top of the maket so without any confirmation, we have to remain light and test the waters before investing heavily in one position and with the specific pair.

Pair: EUR/AUS
Acquisition: 2 days                                                Chart: 4 hour time frame
Entry: 1.2443                                                        Trade: Core Positions
Stop Loss: 1.25346                                               SJF Trade Ratings: 60.42% (medium risk)
Exit: 1.1662                                                           Technical Indicators: 81.25%

Time Table: 15- 20 days.
Rollover Interest: Positive .80-1

Fundamental Issues to Follow:

Europe:                                Forecast                Effect to EUR
1.EUR PPI (YoY)=                Flat                        Flat
2.EUR PPI (MoM)=               Higher                  Higher        
3.QE issue =                  possible Implement        Higher
4.EU downgraded by             Lower                     Lower
 Moody's                          
5. German Purchasing            Lower                     Lower
Manager
Australia:                                                         Effect to AUS
1. Rate Decision                     No change                Higher
2. AUD Account Ballance      Higher                       Higher

US                                                                   Effect to Dollar
1. ISM Manufacturing            Lowe(49.6 vs 49.8)Lower
2. ISM Prices Paid                Higher                     Higher
For more details in US Data, Click: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48894306

Im currently starting to place my short positions for this pair. Due to the 60.42% rating which gives a medium risk, I believe giving entering the postion slowly will lessen our risk in this trade. MACD level is in Resistance level. Entering in 50% FIbonnacci is our first wave.

In this Daily chart, 1 Year resistance was already shown and to confirm the selling pressure with the 200 EMA to this pair giving a 1000 pips entry to go lower.

Summary.:

1. Attempting to short slowly with small lots and try to build it up for 2 days. 

2. Monitor Fundamental factors than can trigger a drop for this pair.