September 3 ,2012 Trade

September 4,2012

 Yesterday, I decided to take profit due to uncertainty and negative rollover rates.
There are some issues that I believe that will make this uptrend continue for today.

Quick Trade
Buy: 1.26188                SJF Average Trade Rating: 18.75% (high risk for overnight)
Stop: 1.25860               Trade Strategy: Technical Trade
Reward: 1.27088           Technical rating: 81.25%

Time Frame:1 hour
Fundamental Issue to follow for today.
1. US Manufacturing
2.EUR PPI YoY and MoM
3. more QE3 Issue.
4. Gold break out.

Strategy: I believe that this will be a technical trade. I was able to enter this trade for technical reasons. Due to SJF Average Trade Rating below 30%. I believe having a tighter Stop Loss with lower Lots should be observed.

In this Strategy. I believe giving a stop loss below the break out price of 1.25864 can be placed in regards to the reward that the pair can give. I remain a high Risk Reward ratio in all trades.

Summary:
 1. In this trade. observe the fundamental reports released later
 2. Keep your stop loss tight. if support break, be ready to reverse trade
 3. Dont put big postions. At the moment, there are uncertain movement of the market.

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For this week, I was able to create my own ratings and will be named as SJF AVERAGE TRADE RATING. Percentage will be graded by trade.

The SJF Average Trade Ratings would be as follows:

Technical: Composed of Indicators and trends and theories

Fundamentals: Composed of Volatility, Rates and Fundamental Issues

Sentiment index: Sentiment indexes of 2 majors brokers + risk reward ratios

Quick Trades: Average Trade Rating requirement: 30% or higher

Weekly Trade: 70% or higher

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Quick Trade: (quick trade has higher risk due to the time frame and tighter stop loss)

In this article, you will see for this weeks trade.

Pair:: EUR/USD                                           Type of Trade: TECHNICAL Trade

Time frame: 1 hour chart                                                       LONG entry

SJF Average Trade Rating: 18.75%

 Technical Index: 81.25%

Entry:1.25808                                               Technical Index: 81.25%

Risk: 1.25429                                               Fundamental Index: -100%

Reward: 1.26807                                          SSI: 75%

For this pair, I was able to factor 3 major sectors which gave me above minimum trade ratings.

If you will trade this pair by technical. Considering TECHNICAL indicators, which is about 81.25% if you will enter now but in general, the rating is below the standard of 30% which is at -18.75% which gives this trade a higher risk. If you want to trade this at this position, always prepare if there is a shift of market sentiment.


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Exhibit 1.1    1 hour chart zoom out

In this chart, for short term, See a continuous uptrend showing a clear support and resistance. Short term trade can be established as long as the support holds 

exhibit 1.2        4 hour chart

In this chart, We were able to see the SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITY. Considering the MACD above the 0 level with a buy signal.

In Summary:

 1. This is only a short term trade. There is higher risk for this trade. 

 2. Short terms are considered per hour/day basis only. Overnight trade with this strategy will give you high risk due to the factors and ratings which was showed.