September 17,2012 Data Analysis

Technical Analysis. Data Analysis EUR/USD
Overall Trend: Downtrend

1. Weekly Chart:
  Resistance @ 1.344 (50day ema)
 support @ 1.2916

2. Daily Chart:
  Resistance @ FIB levels:

 38.2% 1.31878
 50%  1.35343

RSI level : 79.63 (overbought)

3. 4hr Chart:

  Resistance at 38.2% 1.31672
                       50%     1.35049

 RSI Level 84.48 (over bought)

4. 15 min chart= Entry/ exit


Strategy: Will wait for price breaking the 50 ema to enter 1st wave. (2k lot)
              Will enter 2nd wave after 50/200 ema for 15 minute chart is confirmed.(5k lot)
              Will enter 3rd wave when 50 ema will break. (3k Lot)

                                      Over all lots =10 lot
           

Watchlist EUR/USD PAIR Sept 4,2012

I'm currently monitoring the EUR/USD pair at the moment.
I decided to open few trades via the 1 Day chart with 4 hour chart reference as the entry and exit chart.

Pair: EUR/USD

Entry: 1.25678                                                     SJF Average Trade Rating:39.93%((as of today)
Stop Loss: 1.26460                                              Risk: High risk for overnight postion
profit: 1.23539                                                     Objective: Overnight position
                         
Trade plan:                                                            Technical rating: 53.13%
After calculating all Trade factors. I was able to find out that this is high risk for overnight position. I decided to open small positions. Review of trade rating will be re asses tomorrow at the Asian Session and another review at the London Session. If the rating will improve, I'm Planning to open more positions for this pair.

I decided to open this position due to the 1 year resistance level which the pair touched today. I believe the market will respect the 1 year resistance which was confirmed twice.

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To maintain my risk management, I decided to open a small lot until 1 day MACD and other technical factors and thus Technical rating will increase.. This will increase my chance in putting my trade in favor of my position and confirm some fundamental factors.

Weekly Major Trade September 4,2012

September 4 2012.
Market Starting to turn.
Rating slumped to  20.83% as of today.
Currently looking for possibility to lessen my exposure to this pair and increase my stop loss for this pair for the remaining positions.


Currently, I'm building my position for this week slowly.

Im currently exposed with EUR/USD Pair in Long position due to Technical rating.
Fundamentally I am short for EUR.
To hedge my risk. I decided to open second postion with EUR/AUS @ 50% Fibbonacci Retracement.
I decided to open small positions to test the market. We are currently looking for top of the maket so without any confirmation, we have to remain light and test the waters before investing heavily in one position and with the specific pair.

Pair: EUR/AUS
Acquisition: 2 days                                                Chart: 4 hour time frame
Entry: 1.2443                                                        Trade: Core Positions
Stop Loss: 1.25346                                               SJF Trade Ratings: 60.42% (medium risk)
Exit: 1.1662                                                           Technical Indicators: 81.25%

Time Table: 15- 20 days.
Rollover Interest: Positive .80-1

Fundamental Issues to Follow:

Europe:                                Forecast                Effect to EUR
1.EUR PPI (YoY)=                Flat                        Flat
2.EUR PPI (MoM)=               Higher                  Higher        
3.QE issue =                  possible Implement        Higher
4.EU downgraded by             Lower                     Lower
 Moody's                          
5. German Purchasing            Lower                     Lower
Manager
Australia:                                                         Effect to AUS
1. Rate Decision                     No change                Higher
2. AUD Account Ballance      Higher                       Higher

US                                                                   Effect to Dollar
1. ISM Manufacturing            Lowe(49.6 vs 49.8)Lower
2. ISM Prices Paid                Higher                     Higher
For more details in US Data, Click: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48894306

Im currently starting to place my short positions for this pair. Due to the 60.42% rating which gives a medium risk, I believe giving entering the postion slowly will lessen our risk in this trade. MACD level is in Resistance level. Entering in 50% FIbonnacci is our first wave.

In this Daily chart, 1 Year resistance was already shown and to confirm the selling pressure with the 200 EMA to this pair giving a 1000 pips entry to go lower.

Summary.:

1. Attempting to short slowly with small lots and try to build it up for 2 days. 

2. Monitor Fundamental factors than can trigger a drop for this pair.

Relationship of Gold and $/ The findings for AUD/USD

Sept 4 Update. A reversal Pattern appearing in AUD/USD

I believe IF this price holds. it will consolidate around 1.0217 level.
What worries me is the 2 time frame 50/200 day ema which suggest that giving this pair a higher boost will take time.
 Majority is still in favor of short but knowing the market, giving fundamental issues and the rise of GOLD can make this pair stronger as people may sell dollars due to GOLD appreciation.

Interesting I was able to do an overlay Technical Analysis of these 2 .

Exhibit 1.1 Dollar Index and Gold

Technically, We are just looking for a breakdown of USD lower to confirm the appreciation of Gold.

If this will happen. I believe the EUR/USD Pair will be affected and will appreciate higher  for short term.

I believe higher volatility will also increase. People are currently looking for "clear" direction of the movement.

September 3 ,2012 Trade

September 4,2012

 Yesterday, I decided to take profit due to uncertainty and negative rollover rates.
There are some issues that I believe that will make this uptrend continue for today.

Quick Trade
Buy: 1.26188                SJF Average Trade Rating: 18.75% (high risk for overnight)
Stop: 1.25860               Trade Strategy: Technical Trade
Reward: 1.27088           Technical rating: 81.25%

Time Frame:1 hour
Fundamental Issue to follow for today.
1. US Manufacturing
2.EUR PPI YoY and MoM
3. more QE3 Issue.
4. Gold break out.

Strategy: I believe that this will be a technical trade. I was able to enter this trade for technical reasons. Due to SJF Average Trade Rating below 30%. I believe having a tighter Stop Loss with lower Lots should be observed.

In this Strategy. I believe giving a stop loss below the break out price of 1.25864 can be placed in regards to the reward that the pair can give. I remain a high Risk Reward ratio in all trades.

Summary:
 1. In this trade. observe the fundamental reports released later
 2. Keep your stop loss tight. if support break, be ready to reverse trade
 3. Dont put big postions. At the moment, there are uncertain movement of the market.

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For this week, I was able to create my own ratings and will be named as SJF AVERAGE TRADE RATING. Percentage will be graded by trade.

The SJF Average Trade Ratings would be as follows:

Technical: Composed of Indicators and trends and theories

Fundamentals: Composed of Volatility, Rates and Fundamental Issues

Sentiment index: Sentiment indexes of 2 majors brokers + risk reward ratios

Quick Trades: Average Trade Rating requirement: 30% or higher

Weekly Trade: 70% or higher

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Quick Trade: (quick trade has higher risk due to the time frame and tighter stop loss)

In this article, you will see for this weeks trade.

Pair:: EUR/USD                                           Type of Trade: TECHNICAL Trade

Time frame: 1 hour chart                                                       LONG entry

SJF Average Trade Rating: 18.75%

 Technical Index: 81.25%

Entry:1.25808                                               Technical Index: 81.25%

Risk: 1.25429                                               Fundamental Index: -100%

Reward: 1.26807                                          SSI: 75%

For this pair, I was able to factor 3 major sectors which gave me above minimum trade ratings.

If you will trade this pair by technical. Considering TECHNICAL indicators, which is about 81.25% if you will enter now but in general, the rating is below the standard of 30% which is at -18.75% which gives this trade a higher risk. If you want to trade this at this position, always prepare if there is a shift of market sentiment.


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Exhibit 1.1    1 hour chart zoom out

In this chart, for short term, See a continuous uptrend showing a clear support and resistance. Short term trade can be established as long as the support holds 

exhibit 1.2        4 hour chart

In this chart, We were able to see the SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITY. Considering the MACD above the 0 level with a buy signal.

In Summary:

 1. This is only a short term trade. There is higher risk for this trade. 

 2. Short terms are considered per hour/day basis only. Overnight trade with this strategy will give you high risk due to the factors and ratings which was showed.